Kerala 2026 Assembly Poll Mood – Key Takeaways
Survey Scope: Conducted by Spick Media Network in two phases (Apr 15–Jun 1, and Jun 4–Jul 20, 2025) with 78,654 respondents across Kerala.
Voter Interest: 79.35% say they plan to vote; 13.8% won’t, and 6.85% are unsure.
Party Preference (State Governance after 2026):
UDF (INC-led) – 37.74%
LDF (CPI(M)-led) – 30.66%
BJP/NDA – 18.95%
Others – 4.01% | Not sure – 8.64%
Preferred CM:
Pinarayi Vijayan (LDF) – 31.59%
K. Surendran (BJP) – 14.80%
V.D. Satheesan (UDF) – 13.55%
Shashi Tharoor (INC) – 10.22%
Rajeev Chandrasekhar (BJP) – 6.83%
No preference/undecided – 23%+
Tharoor’s Possible BJP Switch: 24.66% say it would make them more likely to support BJP; 35.33% say less likely.
Performance Ratings:
LDF Govt Satisfaction (2021–25): Satisfied – 35.15%; Dissatisfied – 48.02%.
CM Third Term Support: 35.07% yes; 52.39% no.
Top 2026 Voting Issues: Employment (17.32%), Inflation (15.21%), Infrastructure (12.58%), Corruption (11.16%), Healthcare (11.84%).
Alliance & Governance Views:
45.35% oppose INDIA bloc including both CPI(M) & Congress.
53.99% believe opposition (UDF/NDA) has been effective in holding LDF accountable.
45.99% feel Centre treats Kerala unfairly compared to other states.
Project Opinions:
K-Rail: 51.08% oppose; 30.41% support.
AI Traffic Cameras: 40.25% say waste of funds; 34.88% support.
Social Indicators:
73.28% support caste-wise census.
53.62% say caste/religion is important in voting decision.
34.27% want more women candidates; 39.04% say youth leadership not encouraged enough.
Media Consumption: 40.18% rely on social media for political news; 28.35% on online portals; 14.27% on TV.
Electoral Confidence: Only 29.48% are “very confident” 2026 polls will be free and fair; 30.62% are not confident.
Final Seat Projection:
UDF: 71 seats | 40.55% vote share
LDF: 63 seats | 38.73% vote share
NDA: 6 seats | 15.61% vote share
Others: Nil seats | 5.11% vote share
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