The “Fate of Tamil Nadu 1.0” survey was conducted by the Spick Media Network team from December 26, 2024, to February 15, 2025. It involved 1,37,489 respondents from across Tamil Nadu.
The team members include Prasanna, Keerthana, Jagan, Sathish, Vikram, Arun, Ajay, Danav, Rahul, Akshaya, Abinav, Ritvik, Anjali, Sareena, Divya, Akhil, Kishore, Devika, Ram, Amla, Ashwin, Jai, Sanjay, Kavin, Pranav, Karthik, Tamilarasan, Dhanush, Saran, Vishwa, Kavya, Priya, Mithun, Harini, Ragavendran, Vetri, Pooja, Pavithra, Kabilan, Vignesh, Kowshik, Siddarth, Mahathi, Moorthi, Kathiresan, Ganesh, Kalaiyarasi, Shakthivel, Natarajan, Saravana Perumal, Sivaranjani, and Harish M.
- It has been revealed that the majority of Mukulathore, Agamudaiyar, Vellalar, Nadar, Chettiar, Meenavar, Irular, and Kammara communities support the DMK, while the majority of the Vanniyar, Paraiyar, Devendrakula Vellalar, Gounder, Adi Dravidar, Arundhatiyar, Kaattunayakar, and Narikkuravar communities support the AIADMK. The majority of Brahmins support the BJP.
- According to the findings, 56% of people are dissatisfied with the DMK government, 48% of them are dissatisfied with Chief Minister Stalin’s activities, and 52% of people are content with the activities of the current MLAs. The Chief Ministerial candidate contest saw Chief Minister Stalin receive 35% support, followed by AIADMK General Secretary Edappadi Palaniswami with 20% support and actor Vijay with 12% support.
- While 24% of people chose the women’s rights program among the government programs that helped them, 53% expressed their displeasure against the government for law and order issues. 45% of the people said that the DMK government has failed to control the drug culture, and 50% of the people said that there is no safety for women in the state.
- The DMK alliance was supported by 40% of voters in the last Lok Sabha elections, but only 37% of them believe that it will form the government in 2026.
- The AIADMK alliance has a chance to win in the Yercaud and Senthamangalam constituencies, where most of the tribes live. The DMK alliance has a chance to win in 25 of the 44 constituencies where the Scheduled Communities live, and the AIADMK alliance has a chance to win in 19 constituencies. The DMK’s loss of support from the Paraiyar community and the increasing number of crimes against them in Tamil Nadu has made them dissatisfied with the DMK government. The likelihood of AIADMK winning in constituencies where Scheduled Castes are predominant is likely to increase. The DMK coalition’s Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi could face an additional crisis due to the Paraiyar community’s move towards actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam.
- In terms of coalition matters, if the current AIADMK alliance joins the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, it will win many constituencies in southern and delta districts, and the alliance will have a chance to win up to 152 seats. At the same time, if the current AIADMK alliance joins the existing National Democratic Alliance comprising AMMK-OPS, that alliance will have a chance to win 118 seats, while the DMK alliance will have a chance to win 116 seats.
- According to this survey, the growth of the BJP in Tamil Nadu has increased. The Mukulathore community, particularly in the southern districts, is giving the BJP a significant amount of support, which is not dependent on OPS or TTV Dhinakaran, according to the survey. If the present alliances continue as they are, the NDA may receive 9.10% of the votes. Among the 17% support of Scheduled Caste voters living in Mylapore constituency, over 10% consider the BJP to be an alternative to DMK-AIADMK. The BJP has a chance in that constituency, with up to 4% of the 6% Brahmins residing there supporting it. BJP’s support is not popular with other communities in T. Nagar, Sholinganallur, and Velacherry constituencies, where Brahmins reside in large numbers.
- Youth and lower-middle-class people support Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, Naam Tamilar Party, and BJP as the growing parties. Although the DMK and AIADMK, which have been ruling for many years, do not have much support from youth, they are getting the support of the lower middle-class people due to the programs they have provided so far.
- In many constituencies, actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam receives 10-20% support. There is little support in certain constituencies. The party is likely to decide who will win the constituency at some point.
- While there hasn’t been a significant decline in Naam Tamilar Katchi’s vote bank, Seeman’s recent comments, particularly on EVR and the confusion surrounding the Tamil Eelam policy that is being built around him, have caused a slight reduction in his support.
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